Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 0.124391 0.146119 0.171365 0.203072 0.242120 0.289008 0.350136
2025-09-14 0.095411 0.121459 0.154868 0.201573 0.266332 0.354712 0.487587
2025-09-21 0.073643 0.100119 0.136986 0.193500 0.280598 0.414450 0.645617
2025-09-28 0.053485 0.076491 0.110650 0.167038 0.261895 0.423300 0.738929
2025-10-05 0.044724 0.067425 0.103491 0.167995 0.287628 0.516565 1.036658
2025-10-12 0.038770 0.061443 0.099884 0.174284 0.326664 0.656776 1.542713
2025-10-19 0.033548 0.055590 0.095224 0.177759 0.363605 0.818984 2.274676
2025-10-26 0.029380 0.050724 0.091267 0.181808 0.405596 1.027512 3.430534
2025-11-02 0.025187 0.044990 0.084370 0.177728 0.428160 1.208757 4.832204
2025-11-09 0.021365 0.039253 0.076217 0.168420 0.434049 1.352312 6.430902
2025-11-16 0.018998 0.035984 0.072588 0.169204 0.471100 1.650161 9.773979
2025-11-23 0.016990 0.033095 0.069173 0.169620 0.509134 2.007932 15.097842
2025-11-30 0.015304 0.030695 0.066611 0.172488 0.562625 2.544174 25.781979
2025-12-07 0.013849 0.028548 0.064202 0.175262 0.621014 3.238491 46.182372
2025-12-14 0.012325 0.025979 0.060164 0.171643 0.652909 3.868187 77.258736
2025-12-21 0.010367 0.022076 0.051826 0.150946 0.593960 3.746921 89.430597
2025-12-28 0.009543 0.020792 0.050333 0.153682 0.654243 4.798986 182.733685
2026-01-04 0.008958 0.020003 0.050055 0.160969 0.748941 6.571456 475.806880
2026-01-11 0.008351 0.019054 0.049109 0.165515 0.836478 8.751343 1347.708413
2026-01-18 0.007816 0.018204 0.048280 0.170409 0.936199 11.814711 4934.841302
2026-01-25 0.007162 0.016936 0.045872 0.167582 0.981304 14.395757 16655.880641
2026-02-01 0.006479 0.015488 0.042601 0.159638 0.980635 16.179146 51136.700339
2026-02-08 0.006056 0.014710 0.041378 0.160979 1.062642 21.080414 633763.837778